There are two ways of looking at it.The first says, "They've...

There are two ways of looking at it.

The first says, "They've always said this, why should this time be any different?"

The second says, "Well, the company is moving to take 100% ownership of their African subsidiary, which will greatly simplify the chain of responsibility and decision. There are signs that Tanzania is starting to soften, with the various gold miners falling into line with the Tanzanian wishes. The other SML applicant is making relatively positive noises. Nothing is certain, but there is reason for a bit of cautious optimism."

My feeling is that the proof for Peak will come after the meeting in November, which will (I'm tipping) ratify the consolidation. If my hunch (and the hunch of others) is accurate, we should see the SML come shortly after all of those details are finalised.

All that said, it's still a highly speculative bet. Don't go in with more than you can afford to lose (which is sound advice with the stock market in general.)