I meant this one you posted few months ago; At my PC so have found a few of your old posts as I thought they were quite well put and explained. Obviously they're just napkin calcs and only rough guides, so DYOR to everyone.
IAM
f/c Npat = $30m ,
==> $400m x 3, x 4
= $1.2b to $1.5B
SP = 50c to 80c
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/20270399/single
This one as well:
Here is a longish week-end patch-up post to
@ Team IAM
Cap Structure:
4x 250m performance shares è M1,M2,M3,M4
$5.5m cash,
Debt free,
1050m sh + 303m op (Dec17)
=
1353m sh+op
Market Cap ?
x10c = $135m ( Kogan, Ovh) ?
x 20c = $270m (Rap, Smn - Zero revenue)?
x30c = 406m (Class1?, financial services)?
x40c = $540m (CAT) ?
x50c = $675m (Freelancer )?
x60c = $812m (??)
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/19217510/single
Another one too:
We can look backward or forward ( CAT, CL1, Freelancer etc).
IAM sp is going to double every 3 months, from base 4c, just like Xero from $5,10,20,$40.
IAM 4c, 8 ,16, 32c
imo
--------------------
For Newcomers:
Why?
MOAT
No Competitors
First mover advantage. 2-3 years ahead.
$182B market
High Barriers of entry
Low Cost, High Margins.
Product/Service that reduce customers' cost, and increase profits
-
Cap structure:
1050m shares +303m op (Dec2017)
= 1353m sh+op
4x 250m perf shares ( MF&Co)
$5.5m cash
Debt Free
-
The key is M4, $30m
M4
=$30m, x80, x100 PE
= $2.4B, $3B ,
well before June 2019 ,
say Sept 2018
and
CEO MUST achieve total >$40m, to earn last lot @250m shares, before 30/6/19
Lets
halve to
=$1.2B, $1.5B,
for Sep 2017
halve again
=$600m, $75om,
Sep 2016
If you think its too high
halve to
=$300m, $380m
=22c, 28c , today , imo
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/19110992/single
