From NGE presentation PORTFOLIO HOLDING MLX Description • Tin producer with a 50% interest in the Renison Tin Operation, Tasmania. Situation • Tin price remains elevated on challenged supply (DRC, Indonesia, Myanmar). • Increased production due to higher ore grades mined from Area 5 and Leatherwood, as well as improved mill recovery. • Strong balance sheet. • Recent strategic investments in First Tin plc (LSE:1SN) and Elementos Limited (ASX:ELT); unsolicited approach to acquire Greentech Technology International Limited (HKE:0195). • FID on Rentails Project expected 4Q CY2026. Assessment • High operational leverage to tin price. • Potential for further mine-life extensions via additional conversion of existing resources to reserves, exploration upside, or by tying-in other nearby tin deposits • Supply deficit forecast to increase as tin demand grows, supporting long term price uplift. • Improved transparency on capital allocation and further capital returns to shareholders would alleviate investor concerns about risk of mal-investment, as would increased direct share ownership by board. Snapshot Valuation Source: Company filings, IRESS, NGE analysis. Note: DCF based on updated Life-of-Mine Plan published in December 2023. Assumes WACC of 12%, LT AUD:USD FX rate of 0.65. Source: Company filings, IRESS, NGE analysis. Note: FYE 31 December. 1 Adjusted for shareholdings in First Tin (1SN), Elementos (ELT), Nico Resources (NC1) and Tanami Gold (TAM). No value attributed to Cyprium Metals (CYM) convertible due to uncertainty around Cyprium’s ability to repay. 2 Assumes average tin price of US$32,000/t, 90% payable, AUD:USD FX rate of 0.65, Sn production ~10.5kt (noting 1Q25 impacted by operational issues and bushfires, and FY24 production significantly exceeded Dec-23 life of mine plan), capex ~A$80m. Ticker ASX : MLX Price (30 Apr 25) $/sh 0.565 Market cap $m 501 EV1 $m 239 EV/EBITDA (FY25E)2 x 1.8 EV/FCF (FY25E)2 x 2.7 NGE position size % 6.4% VALUATION Long-Term Tin Price (US$/t) $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 DCF per share (A$) $0.63 $0.78 $0.92 $1.07 Source: Company filings, IRESS, NGE analysis. Note: DCF based on updated Life-of-Mine Plan published in December 2023. Assumes WACC of 12%, LT AUD:USD FX rate of 0.65.
MLX Price at posting:
55.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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