I find it really difficult to estimate potential flows with IMF.
I do note though that they say they have a total EPV (Expected Payout Value) of $7.6 billion over 91 cases/investments.
In one group of funds they estimate that of $3.2 billion EPV that $706 million is possible for completion in FY2019 (which is in the next 5 months). In the past revenue has been 15% of the EPV so by my reckoning that makes it a possible revenue of $105m in FY2019.
Another fund group has $202m committment to investment of which $31.3m may complete in FY2019. It seems that in the past ROIC for this has only been 0.84 but it still suggests a further potential FY19 rev of $26m.
I do note that IMF does state that revenue may not be recognised when the result is finalized.
Based on their estimates I calculate that it is possible for $131m of rev to complete in this FY which may or may not be recognised this financial year.
In any case, it does appear that some chunks are coming our way in the next periods.
Please correct or develop any of these scribblings as I have been trying for some time to get a handle on all this.
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- Ann: Investment Portfolio at 31 December 2018
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