agree 100%. hence why I called it shooting hot air - the divi talk. but overall, the presentation was ok.
and if ALK does land JV and retains around 20-25% stake then yes, ALK can offer long term divis and be seen by pension funds as both divi and growth stock - still not blue chip though but good enough to hold small stakes.
this is where ALK strategy should be and Nic needs to articulate this in his presos - clear path to growth with potential of long term divis. Right now I see no clear strategy where they are heading and only holding in hope they land JV with NMPP or report some really strong exploration results from somewhere - preferably NMPP.
we still have to see what SS will show and how they plan to use the 5Mt plant as I doubt the 5Mt scenario will be to mine the lot but rather the highest grades and what LOM will be.
Also, if the 20Mt plant shows strong returns then JV will happen and this is where the experience of the team will matter. If they do something similar to what I expect then ALK will secure its long term future - 20-25% stake with around $150m cash payment as finder fees and the JV partner to develop and operate the project. ALK collects around 60Koz worth of profit which is same as what Tomie produces now but NMPP will have much lower AISC - and this will be going on for about 30years all things equal.
Any other production from any other mine can be paid as 100% dividend while rest of the profit to be saved for m&a and more aggressive exploration efforts.
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