I listenedto the CC for a second time this AM.First AL seems to be stressed again not as bad as last fall but level is there. I found several of her statements though true, Very misleading.
I hope WESdoes not buy them.I want to invest in REO. Lynas owned by WES who is many times larger eliminates the best chance in the free world.
AL saying noone can do it as well as we can is true but misleading.I absolutely agree with this if it is verses any one else in the world.I even believe they are better than China right now.There is an implication they can do it better thana Lynas owned by WES.This I have to disagree with.If WES buys Lynas they own all the reasons why Lynas can do it.Hopefully they Make offers to keep all key people including AL herself.So if WES owns the company why can’t they do it as well?In Fact with 1.7 Trillion of cash assets money is no longer a problemso this takes a major concern off the table.https://www.wesfarmers.com.au/docs/default-source/asx-announcements/2018-annual-report.pdf?sfvrsn=0PG100
Second issueis that Japan is tied to Lynas.I have no doubt that after all they have been through there is a strong relationship here with the Lynas management team.I firmly believe if WES does not buy them Japan will finance what Lynas needs at very favorable terms.This shows a problem in that even after 8 years that Lynas cannot survive on their own, without aid from Japan. Japan loves the supply of REO.A supply that has been growing and improving under the current management.With the resources that WES has would that not enable faster growth?Would that not relieve Japan of needing to provide favorable financing?So if you are Japan which team looks like it has the most potential? Which improves your supply?That is the key question for those in Japan.The board probably will lose their jobs but all the people that Japan has working relations with will probably still be there.WES could also set this up as a Wholly owned independent subsidiary.Giving AL some of, but not all, the independence she would like.
Some poorly managedbuyouts lead to the destruction of companies.Some also led to fantastic growth.Any change has risk. Being bought by a company so far removed from the REO industry increases that risk. Looking at this deal from a purchaser of Lynas’s REO, there are negatives but also many positives. Most of the negatives come from the assumption that WES will disassemble everything as opposed to keeping them and intelligently growing it.
As someonethat sees great opportunities for my finatial gain if Lynas remains independentI hope this deal falls through.I think with or without WES Lynas will grow.I have just learned that when I let my emotions and what might be good for me take a major place inmy opinions I usually do not do well.
In spite ofwhat AL says it is all up to the boards of both companies now.With fat consulting contracts to the Lynas board and a good offer to AL with a golden parachute.The board will recommend this and the way the stock is distributed nothing will stop it.Hope I am wrong, time will tell. JMO.
(20min delay)