The thermal coal sympathy sell may well be a great opportunity... time will tell. CRN have locked in US$187/t on US operation domestic supply (100% up on last year), and in the latest quarterly the Aus received price was only USD$155/t compared to the vwap of US$263/t - there is massive upside on the Australian operation sale price, which exists because contracts lag by 3M.
Will be interesting to see what met coal prices do over the medium term, definitely they will reduce below the current US$400/t pricing, but it's where they end up that's the interesting bit... Anything over US$200/t is very good margins...
I think the CRN price fall is a huge opportunity, CRN do not sell thermal coal... I think the market is mispricing because of this...
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