Fair points.
And yes, actual ROE has its limitations. Would also add to your point, that FY23 ROE would decline in absence of capex in line with cash flow decline. So yes, correct.
My main point though, is they should not be assessing inorganic projects with a lower hurdle rate than organic projects. Yes, it's a minimum hurdle rate, and may be that the inorganic projects that they elect to invest in have a hurdle rate greater than organic ones, but I would like to see that outlined as the minimum, for comfort that they aren't just investing for the sake of their bonus.
For their remuneration and bonuses, I expect results, not this share price that has significantly underperformed peers (also referenced).
This tells us over the last year, comparable GOM assets have doubled, whilst OEL has only increased 30%. We deserve to all be 3x better off.
Frustrations
- Hurdle rates (can't and shouldn't be deploying cash on lower threshold inorganic projects)
- There are simple things that management could be doing to catch up to peers. That conference has still not been uploaded.
- I am sure there are many would be investors that might invest on the back of comments that have been discussed in here (that have not yet been released). I'm one, and was really hoping to add more today, but because this information is not available, I'll deploy my funds to STX/TPD for now. Very frustrating, as it may cost me. They have a duty to disclose, and they failed us, only a task that takes 2 minutes.
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On a macro front:
- Biden has been artifically increasing supply of oil from depletion of strategic oil reserves in the US. This ends at the end of this month (as the reserves have been depleted)
- OPEC just cut 2m supply yesterday.
- Biden is going to need to replenish those depleted reserves.
I think oil price fundamentals are looking extremely positive, which is great for any oil company that has no hedging exposure.
