The sale of the plantation assets has increased the net tangible...

The sale of the plantation assets has increased the net tangible assets by around 30c per share. So far, we haven't got that full bump yet, but that's OK. Midway is still trading at a 37% discount to NAV with my calculations. I suspect they will continue to trade at somewhat of a discount due to the management uncertainties and the timeframes of the cash flows.

This was a really good sale for Midway. Good price. But they are now committed even more to expanding their capacity with +$200m commitment of the SPV to new plantations fuelling Midway Geelong which is a loss-maker. It could make Geelong profitable if they get all that new supply of wood.. BUT.. so far they have not been able to sell the wood they are getting. They have had too much capacity over the past couple of years actually. So unless they fix that issue up - partly but not wholly because of Covid and the supply chain disruptions - well then they are actually going to find themselves even less profitable as they go forward.

But, if they DO find the markets in Japan and China for their woodchips at or near the spotprice as per the Shanghai Futures Exchange.. well blow me over, they'll be minting money AND will start trading at a premium to their NTA. Big iffs. Not going to happen this year, but maybe 2H23?