Ann: Investor Day Presentation, page-2

One takeout is page 52, where GNC states in a highly relevant note to today's situation 'GNC's market share of grain volumes increases as the east coast Australia's crop size gets larger'.

Note that in a 'normalised year' (ie. median grain production), GNC's share of containerised grain exports is only 10 to 20 per cent whereas its share of bulk exports (i.e. delivered by rail - preferably - or trucks to ports like Geelong, Portland (Vic), Port Kembla, Carrington (Newcastle), Gladstone (Qld), Mackay or Fishermans Island (Brisbane) is 70-75 per cent'. If containerised exports - perhaps largely for small overseas customers who don't want 60000 tonnes of grain in a single hit - grow as a percentage of all exports in a 'normal year', that may be a problem for GNC. However GNC says 'containerised exports are more stable at 1.5-2.5 million tonnes per annum'.

There is also a good world map on page 32 showing the various exports and imports of countries and regions. Black Sea exports have been rising but nowhere did the investor day presentation mention the Russian export tax that is apparently hitting their exporters hard, and making Australian exports even more competitive.

The graph on page 23 claims that showing grain production 'through a 10-year lens shows substantially lower volatility', with similar reference on page 13. That may be so, but to lay observers, cropping volumes still appear highly volatile, with the current winter 2020-21's boom time (which we holders are and will see the benefits of) contrasting with three below average years immediately prior.

The page 13 graph does however show that Australian east coast grain production has risen over time. Better varieties - technological improvement - would be a contributor. This is very positive with Australian graingrowers perhaps world leaders in dryland crop growing.

The presentation strives to explain the Crop Production insurance contract with White Rock again that this financial year sees GNC paying out $70 million, but in other years will see a payment from the insurer. I suspect it's still a bone of contention with some analysts as to whether this insurance is worthwhile but GNC is adamant that is the case as it smooths year-to-year volatility.

The presentation highlights how 'through-the-cycle' EBITDA should rise from c.$200 million per annum to c.$240 million by 2023-24. This is positive if it occurs but one wonders whether the international expansion cost savings (including closure of the Hamburg, Germany office) are achievable ($15m of the $40m uplift).

That GNC is the leading oilseeds processor in Australia would be little understood by many market participants.