while I don’t think such capital management articulation would...

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Just_a_guy

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02/10/19

12:35

Post #: 40684207
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Originally posted by madamswer: ↑

I learnt a few things from the presentation, namely:

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...which are all positive and address some of the concerns that have impacted the de-rating of the stock in recent months.

But I also learnt, (gulp!) this:

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I knew there was a degree of customer concentration risk, but I had no idea it was as high as that.

It is a detailed and technical presentation, but what I would liked to have heard more about the acquisition growth strategy (acknowledging the commercial sensitivities around not revealing one's strategic cards), and especially the capital management alternative should the right acquisition opportunity (ies) present.

Because, as you say, it looks like they have been disciplined on the acquisition front, but in 9 months' time the Net Debt-to-EBITDA will be close to 1.3 times (from 1.6x at June 2019) which for a business whose Operating Cash Flow is around 8 times higher than Capex, is not at all demanding.

I would like to hear about the scope and prospect of returning surplus capital to shareholders, preferably through an on-market buyback, which I consider would be value-accretive at current share price levels.

In other words, I wouldn't mind hearing them articulate - at a minimum - something along the lines of,

"If we can't find an attractive enough business to buy, then we might look at buying a bit of our self, instead."

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while I don’t think such capital management articulation would be counterproductive (it may even make potential vendors less greedy/confident) but I suspect they won’t mind letting the balance sheet strengthen at present (net debt /ebitda was down to 1.1 in 2018). Not that I’m necessarily in favour of a big acquisition but clearly the stronger the balance sheet, the more variety of acquisitions they could look at without having to raise capital at levels below intrinsic value.

Anyone know now what sort of margins TJM get cf arb?

GUD Price at posting: $10.34 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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