Have mentioned this before but the other thing one should take into account, is that revenue doesn't always convert to cash in the same period. So in your assumptions above and earlier in this thread, and borrowed from Sequoia, it's worth asking the question, will we see 100% conversion of revenue to cash in the same quarter? The answer to this, across many companies, is infrequently 'yes', however, if it means cash is received from the preceding quarter' s revenue, no doubt this can go some way to offset this. In essence however, since we're merely guessing I'd always allow for a conservative contingency as a buffer.
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Have mentioned this before but the other thing one should take...
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