Hi friend
regarding Acadia my studies lead me to the following. that would be bomb!!!
It is clear that the market is trying to discount something beyond trophinethide. Rating agencies confirm they are in a big mess by even double their TP from just three months ago. Since the post FDA approval, the stock has entered de-risk mode and has the certainty of more or less substantial revenues, so much so as to exclude any possibility of dilution a priori. Pilcher certainly has enormous pressure from many quarters, but neuren has been involved in a project in recent years which it must now follow up on. The approval of trophinethide is the key point for opening up to a subsequent stage. The most important effect that has generated this approval is the legitimacy of neuren as a reliable biotech, capable of supplying the world of experimentation with molecules that work. This translates into future enrollments without delay, hospitals well disposed and top tier operators available.But the real pearl of Neuren is Prader Willi !!PW is the fourth trial foreseen in the sphere of 2591. the most difficult trial, the most controversial and ambiguous due to dilated times, sudden request for money from the market and aimed at the same, and which required the hiring of very high profile figures, such as Liza Squires who is our scientific contact for the United States.We come to Prader Willi.Pilcher also recently confirmed that the results of the phase 2 trial will be more or less in line with those of the remaining three 2591 indications. Curious if we think that it still has to start today. Another aspect is the voucher that Acadia and Neuren share. I think it is logical and rational that if you have a voucher in your pocket and a pipeline to develop and you want to do it as quickly and easily as possible, you keep it and play it at home. Then, for the umpteenth time, the opportunity for Acadia and Neuren to give continuity to their winning and historic collaboration was born again.Basically I'm saying that the PW trial could be shared with acadia just like it was for trofinetide, with the advantage that it can generate a voucher. For FX it is not possible to exploit it as per the FDA regulation in concession, therefore the only study of a certain depth and relative importance is Prader Willi.I arrived at this conclusion conveyed by the suspicion that PW hasn't started for two years and that most likely it was delayed on purpose, after the FDA approval to have the voucher as a dowry.Suspicions were then supported by the following:acadia has been interested in prader willi since 2014:
https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/opdlisting/oopd/detailedIndex.cfm?cfgridkey=423014then acadia waits for Levo to fail on the trial :
https://www.fpwr.org/blog/whats-happening-in-pws-research-2022-conference-videofinally you buy Levo in February 2022 :
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ACADIA-PHARMACEUTICALS-IN-8222/news/ACADIA-Pharmaceuticals-Inc-acquired-Levo-Therapeutics-Inc-40854965/
after all that, I wouldn't be surprised if Acadia were to become an active part of the PW trial and if it was the first act of a very fast process towards a TO against Neuren.Whether it's Acadia or otherwise, leaving Neuren on the market any longer is economically counterproductive.
(20min delay)