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Ann: Investor Presentation 1H 2023 Financial Results, page-19

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    South32: Sydney Round-table - Right place, righttime? We met with S32 CEOGrahamKerr and CFOSandy Sibenaler. Discussion focused on portfolio, balancesheet and growth. S32 remains our preferred diversified with increasingleverage to future-facing metals and uplift in FCF yield to 7.7%/6.4% FY24/25from 2.9% FY23. 1) Portfolio: Base metal bias with assets not aligned tostrategy considered for sale at the right price. 2) Illawarra Met Coal: Focuswas on media reports of potential M&A (link). S32 confirmed a formalprocess was not underway but that assets may be sold at the right price.Approach(es) have been made in last 6mths at unattractive prices. S32 see amulti-decade future for IMC with green steel expected to take time and Appinsingle LW producing to ~2039+. NSW gov is consulting on proposed royaltychanges; key will be differentiating thermal/met coal. A QLD style royaltywould negatively impact NPV up to $250m. 3) Sierra Gorda: Debottleneckingprogressing, 47-48Mtpa run rates FY24 before FID that takes throughput to58-58Mtpa over 3yr build for approx. US$500m capex (100% basis). JVrelationship strong, expansion and funding scenario decisions to come alongsideoxide leach option. 4) Worsely: Boddington bauxite approvals for next 15yrs LOM90%-95% complete; expect by Jun-H-25, 2-3yr existing mine plan buffer, furtherfrom water supply (closest ~15kms) than peers. 5) Hillside:Repowering/decarbonisation key, complicated by downstream and 30k jobsdependent on the complex. Nuclear + solar/wind offtake sought but cost sharingwith Eskom/gov key. 6) Alumar: Disappointing but still see value in restartdespite delays. 7) Hermosa: Cu optionality at Peake, development of Clarke withUS funding assistance will create value despite recent write down. Capex withFID later CY23 next catalyst, cons US$2.1-$2.2b, likely 4yr build. 8) AmblerJV: Road permit and resource inventory both required to justify investmentcase. First nations road consent process moving forward. We remain Buy rated,A$4.30/sh price target. Source:UBS

 
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