I’ve spent some time probability checking this presentation and these are the results, all IMO of course. The analysis has not been helped by the inability to ask questions during the live stream at the AGM. Rox complied with ASX rules on AGMs but not with the spirit of them.
RR is so (over) confident about things he has no strong evidence for that teasing out an accurate (most likely) picture is not easy. For example, his strong conviction that there is another Youanmi and /or Penny along the shear zone. This was the passion of previous MD Alex Passmore who spent many millions searching, including the ‘compelling’ targets south the Youanmi. At this stage while there is certainly a possibility of another Youanmi or Penny in this huge area no one should be supremely confident.
Some positives now:
Rox needs 210K ozs of gold @ 5g/t to make its 2022 Scoping Study work
Rob says that they are targeting 250K – 300K mainly from Link and says they have almost completed the upgrade and we will be pleased when we see the mineral resource update due early in Q1 2024.
Having lost some credibility over the Paddy’s fiasco and the recent erroneous ann, RR would not make this statement if it was untrue.
The regional drilling and near mine is the icing on the cake. If Rox succeed in their current drilling campaign they will upscale to a 100koz PA production output in the PFS. IMO that is a good possibility. Rox attracted a very smart insto in its last share issue based on its pathway to production presentation and will not want to disappoint.
Periodically, over the past 4 years Rox has made a ‘finally we understand the Youanmi geology’ statement or hinted that this the case. Famously Alex Passmore said they understood the geology so well they didn’t need to get assays from the last hole before drilling the next. This mistaken belief cost millions in wasted drilling north of Grace. In fact the Youanmi Shear is a complex and very tricky geological zone which is one of the reasons why Rox has not been taken over.
The latest Rox thesis is that zones like Pollard, even the humble Plant Zone are potentially huge deposits at depth. Part of the evidence for this thesis is historical drill holes. Below is a diagram of the Pollard Block based on actual historical drill holes and no high grade resource is evident. However, there is no doubt that the Youanmi Main Lode at depth has massive potential and it’s certainly possible that there is a deep very high grade gold resource at Link but the diagram on page 9 of the presentation strays too far from the evidence imo.
But the good news is that Rox will deliver a pleasing resource update and a PFS likely based on a price of gold well above it’s 2022 $2,450 oz assumption (perhaps $3,000 oz) with a greatly increased free cash flow. With more drilling success the production output could be 100koz PA with an AISC of $1,500 oz producing an even bigger cash flow. Mine life will be reduced to 5 years with a larger mill so the cash flow will be turbocharged. Youanmi could be a cash cow for its owners, whoever they are? Interesting that RR says that he “hopes” that Rox will be the company to bring Youanmi back into production. Note the recent change to substantial holdings at Venus, major holder of Rox.
Rob Ryan is a renowned feasibility specialist as he showed at Bardoc and a DFS and funding to pay pre production costs is possible by the end of next year.
Good to see Hawke’s Point strongly in support and adding skin the game, as are Rox directors buying at 20 cps. Hawkes Point made a killing at Capricorn and is doing well at Ora Banda. Rox’s turn is coming.
(20min delay)
