Cambam, I agree with you.
After quietly watching since IPO, yesterday I sat down and performed my analysis, conclusion: this stock currently sits right in the sweet spot of the risk/reward line for me (following that analysis).
Last time i performed my analysis on this stock was when MF recommended the stock to others and it blew up to $1.50 or so, I looked at it at $1.30 and decided it was too hot for me for an early growth tech stock, too much down side risk...
My main concern was whether they could execute their strategy through organic growth and acquisition and if they would continue to grow post lock down in the UK. They have since proven their ability to stick to their strategy and Sep Q demonstrated +20% growth post lock down.
They have opened a channel in Ireland and commenced service in Aus via acquisition of GP2U.
I have recently utilised a similar service here in Australia, Doctors on Demand, it was a very good experience, unless I have to I will not visit a doctors surgery again, the virtual experience and service is very good and saves a lot of time and stress. Therefore I believe in what they are proposing to do.
My calculations showed potential for cash break even in Q2-3 2022 without needing another raise (assuming no more acquisition), my own work matched reasonably well with the BP analysis, different assumptions etc but reasonably good correlation.
There is risk with this however there is also opportunity.
The risk is that the once off operating and investment expenses on increasing marketing, doctors and acquiring GP2U do not materialise in revenue growth on the next quarter and following, the opportunity is that they will, I think that they will.
This is a tech company in the hot growing sector of Health services. Their product offering is scaleable and in demand. The more they scale the bigger the moat. Businesses will not transfer to another platform unless the development falls behind, looks to me like they continue to improve the service.
What finalised the buy decision for me was a little announcement I found in May last year related to a deal they are working on with Nufield. DOC said in that announcement they expected to finalise the agreement in Q4 this year, which is why I bought today.
Should they manage to complete that agreement with Nufield it will represent a large material increase to revenue and the beginning of normalising virtual health services through GP's and other health professionals. Exciting! GPs across UK will be able to meet with patients and then use the DOC service to hold subsequent virtual checkups.
There is always the risk of further dilution in these early growth stocks, it remains high risk/high reward, the point is for me I feel its at the sweet spot now. I draw upon my entry position experience following similar analysis of NEA, LOV and SKF for comparison.
My thoughts only, thought I would share.
cheers
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