PAR 0.85% 29.8¢ paradigm biopharmaceuticals limited..

Ann: Investor Presentation - $66m Capital Raise, page-69

  1. 1,584 Posts.
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    Beg your pardon Denial. Yes, it appears the
    LNA043 trial is only a Phase 2b trial. Gives
    Zilosul a lot more breathing space even if ogg
    the Novartis drug turns out to be useful.

    While on the subject of market potential, the
    other day, I did some rough calculations on the
    likely PAR share price in 5-6 years, if everything
    goes according to plan.

    Started off with an expectation of around 100M
    OA TAM for the western wealthy nations in 26/27
    when Zilosul is likely to hit the market for OA.

    Say there is a realistic expectation of 10%
    (as you said above) penetration of that market
    and let’s take an in between figure of $4K per
    patient treated. That gives a yearly sales figure
    of $40B.

    I think a conservative PAR share of that could
    be around 20% or $8B, allowing the rest for
    manufacturer and distributors.

    Now lets postulate that PAR will need another
    2 CR to get Zilosul on to market and take the
    issued capital out to about 400M shares.

    Lets say MC is 10 times actual or near term
    revenue. MC = $80B

    Share value $80B divided by 400M
    = $200 per share just for OA. Mind boggling.

 
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