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29.8¢ paradigm biopharmaceuticals limited..

Ann: Investor Presentation - $66m Capital Raise, page-70

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ROYISHUNGRY

113 Posts.

19

22/08/22

20:05

Post #: 63256552
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Originally posted by Mangoman605: ↑

Beg your pardon Denial. Yes, it appears the
LNA043 trial is only a Phase 2b trial. Gives
Zilosul a lot more breathing space even if ogg
the Novartis drug turns out to be useful.

While on the subject of market potential, the
other day, I did some rough calculations on the
likely PAR share price in 5-6 years, if everything
goes according to plan.

Started off with an expectation of around 100M
OA TAM for the western wealthy nations in 26/27
when Zilosul is likely to hit the market for OA.

Say there is a realistic expectation of 10%
(as you said above) penetration of that market
and let’s take an in between figure of $4K per
patient treated. That gives a yearly sales figure
of $40B.

I think a conservative PAR share of that could
be around 20% or $8B, allowing the rest for
manufacturer and distributors.

Now lets postulate that PAR will need another
2 CR to get Zilosul on to market and take the
issued capital out to about 400M shares.

Lets say MC is 10 times actual or near term
revenue. MC = $80B

Share value $80B divided by 400M
= $200 per share just for OA. Mind boggling.

Expand

Would like to be reffered to as Sir, Lord or Baron Mangoman after that lol? Ha ha ha

PAR Price at posting: $1.28 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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