So, they are expecting between $106m and $108m in Revenue for FY2018.
That equates to between 8% and 10% growth.
They guide to the EBIT margin for FY2018 being "steady at ~10%", but based on their history of under-promising and over-delivering, I suspect the margin will come in somewhere between 10.1% (last year's result) and 10.5%, so say, 10.3%.
That results in FY2018 EBIT of around $11m, which is 12% up on FY2017.
So, good organic growth, even if it is predicated on guidance which is likely to prove to being conservative. [*]
And then, in line with their strategy of managing the business for long-term time horizons - which includes the formulation of 3-year budgets against which they hold themselves to account - they are expecting Revenue of $118m in 2020, again at EBIT margin of ~10%.
(Personally, I'm not too trusting about the veracity even of 12-month forecasts, let alone forecasts made three years hence. But still, at least it gives them some sort of objective to which to aim, which can't be a bad thing.)
$118m in FY2020 equates to less than 5%pa Revenue growth between FY2018 and FY2020 which, again, looks to be typically conservative given the company's historical growth rates, the newly commissioned infrastructure as well as the ongoing investment in expanded capability currently underway.
Ditto for the expectation, which they expect will be largely unchanged between between Fy2017 and FY2020, despite the company's benefits of scale having been proven by the increasing EBIT margins over time.
Personally, based on the growth foundations having been, and currently being, put in place I'd not be surprised to see FY2020 Revenues closer to $130m, at an EBIT margin of 11%, so FY2020 EBIT somewhere around $14m. (With D&A running at around $1.2m by then, it implies EBITDA of a little over $15m)
Hence, while I think the company's management are being their usual conservative selves in terms of setting out expectations of future financial performance, I believe that the market is already fully anticipating the upside "surprise".
Based on my 2020 expectations (insofar as looking out that far can have any meaning), the stock is trading on a three-year prospective P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples of 15x and 9.5x, respectively.
On current financial-year multiples, the P/E is 19.5x and EV/EBITDA is over 12x.
Definitely no longer cheap.
The re-rating of the stock is now complete, I strongly suspect, with limited scope for further capital appreciation for the foreseeable future
[*] At the time of the AGM in FY2016, they indicated an expectation for FY2017 of "Revenue above $92m and EBIT above $7.5m". Well, they made a series of upgrades to that low-ball forecast during the course of FY2017, with the final result being Revenue of $97.6m and EBIT of $9.9m!
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So, they are expecting between $106m and $108m in Revenue for...
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Last
$26.81 |
Change
0.810(3.12%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.139B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$26.14 | $26.85 | $26.00 | $386.1K | 14.55K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 17 | $26.61 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$26.85 | 437 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 17 | 26.610 |
1 | 766 | 26.100 |
1 | 38 | 26.010 |
1 | 961 | 26.000 |
2 | 1084 | 25.800 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
26.850 | 437 | 1 |
27.000 | 100 | 1 |
27.330 | 18 | 1 |
27.530 | 37 | 1 |
28.790 | 80 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 23/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
SNL (ASX) Chart |
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STRATEGIC ENERGY RESOURCES LIMITED
David DeTata, Managing Director
David DeTata
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