I agree that it's also not realistic to be using the outdated consensus Spodumene price numbers for projects coming online in the reasonably short-term.
I'd hazard to guess that the NPV of the first few years alone of Kathleen Valley (using more contemporary prices) would probably be bigger than the life-of-mine NPV if you used an outdated fixed price in the vicinity of US$1,200/tonne for the entire project.
I think your assumptions are too high personally, but I am quite conservative. I haven't bothered projecting cashflows out for decades as there's too many unknowns - I have personally more focused on the first few years of the project and viewed the rest as candy! I think LTR's ability to commence production on schedule (whilst prices are likely to remain extremely strong) will go great ways in funding the company's downstream refining ambitions in a reasonably short amount of time. That's what's super exciting about LTR for me.
In terms of your iron ore comments, I agree that's the case for the absolutely incredible Pilbara iron ore projects (i.e. BHP and RIO owned ones). If you look at the lower quality ones (e.g. MinRes), the margins are far less sensational.
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Last
79.0¢ |
Change
-0.020(2.47%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.915B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
80.0¢ | 80.0¢ | 77.5¢ | $10.13M | 12.82M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
12 | 365849 | 79.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
79.5¢ | 35511 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 275636 | 0.790 |
3 | 42546 | 0.785 |
13 | 263766 | 0.780 |
15 | 145296 | 0.775 |
34 | 373952 | 0.770 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.800 | 92226 | 7 |
0.805 | 15000 | 2 |
0.810 | 47025 | 3 |
0.815 | 70752 | 2 |
0.825 | 11000 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 23/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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