Cap,
You are absolutely right. Numbers can often be twisted to tell the story you want to tell. For eg, you statement ''Base case numbers are already below current pricing which doesn't induce confidence in these figures'' is incorrect imho, although people looking at it superficially might agree with you. Even though the NP in US$ term has gone down overnight, the AUD has also gone down. This results in a more favourable NP in AUD for the base case, which is what we POS SHs are interested in.
What puzzles me though is that is takes 1.3 Yrs to payback under the base case scenario but 1.4 years under the spot scenario. Since the spot scenario is generating more FCF, I would have expected the spot scenario option to have a shorter payback period than the base case. But of course, I only spent 15 seconds looking at these numbers. Maybe my comment is wrong.
I was expecting a good 10%+ sp rise yesterday. The fact that it did not happen tells me that not many believe the info put out to market by POS management. As they say once bitten, twice shy. In POS case, it's more like twenty times bitten or every day feels like April fools day or the boy who cried wolf, etc
I hope management realise what a mess they have created by taking people for a ride. By ride I mean management has released so many plans to bring us to production over the years with timelines. They have not been able to deliver on any of these announcements. I can see that PH is trying to change all this but it seems only FID will be able to make our sp go up. If I am not mistaken FID was due in Dec 21, then July 22, then Sep 22, then BOB's your uncle. Please POS management, don't be surprised to see that most neutral don't believe the info put out by the company (excluded from this list are people having very close relationship or working for the company who sing the praise of the company on HC morning, noon and night).
COME ON PH. RELEASE THE FID, EVEN IF IT'S 1 YEAR LATE. STOP THE WEALTH DESTRUCTION OF INVESTORS. FID WILL BRING BACK INTEREST FROM THE MARKET. COME ON PH. WE BELIEVE IN YOU. RELEASE THE FID PLEASE. YOU HAD MORE THAN ENOUGH ADDITIONAL TIME TO FINALIZE THE FID. SURELY, IT MUST BE READY BY NOW.
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