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Ann: Investor Presentation - Black Swan Feasibility Study, page-60

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joker1

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23/11/22

15:57

Post #: 64945531
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Originally posted by tomboy: ↑

its very simple.

this BFS is for a mere 4 year LOM at 1.0% grade for only 30kt
Thats why the FCF is $333M

If it was for 60 years the FCF goes to $5B
but they are only doing a BFS for 4 years LOL.

When you look at the blending ratios, volume of production, scope, LOM and av grade, this BFS has been deliberately reduced substantially to the lowest possible sums compared to max or total capacity

but it shows that even under such low low figures its still doing a 56% margin, amazing.
This proves that I was right all along, when I have said for a decade that POS can produce profitable AT ANY NP!

in particular in this BFS the parameters are at the lowest possible ratios -
production is 7,500pa v 15,000 (CEO call) v 12,000pa (my call)
LOM is 4 years v 25 years (MST Access call 2021) v 60 years (my maths on this production for the entire current JORC)
av grade 1.0% v 1.23% PAN or 1.5% my call with higher HG mixed
FCF $333M/4 yrs = $83Mpa v $250Mpa my prior maths using higher grade and full 1.1MTpa at 56% margin, big difference.

even the 1.0% grade they themselves assess for a 1.1MT pa throughput is ignored LOL
1,100,000 x 0.010 = 11,000 Tpa NOT 7,500Tpa !

Remember this 1.0% av grade figure is FICTIONAL & FLEXIBLE,
it can be increased by adding more HG into the blend say 70-30 from the 9.1% from SS deeps to take it to 1.5% any time.

The more HG the more production, revenue, margins & lower costs.
The longer the LOM the more the NPV and overall project revenues and margins.

its a magic act alright, the disappearing low ball act,
where production size, mill capacity, high grade ore, LOM, its own JORC is ignored in favour of limited smaller operation at 4 year low estimates for the offtaker

the 2.2MTpa BFS should be triple this at $1B FCF over 4 years at only 60% mill capacity. WOW.
Do the math, the math dont lie, the parameters lie if you make them.

POS can produce a motza at a NP of 11.40 at lowball capacity & lowball production based on lowball HG use. WOW.

Expand

Thanks Tomboy
Now I get it, the life of the project is a big factor.
Why do they put this out, is it because this is all they can justify on current proved reserves?

POS Price at posting: 4.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Investor Presentation - Black Swan Feasibility Study, page-60

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