- The person / company with the gold makes the rules - this should not come as a surprise, as they carry most of the risk.
- Alcoa have world class Project execution experience, so it's not a horrible situation to be in, for them to be calling the shots.
- 35% of 'something' is a hell of a lot better than 100% of 'nothing'.
- Investors incorrectly assumed that Alcoa was going to sign a deal which constituted "up front" funding, and this never eventuated^^.
- FID is the No.1 impediment to FYI getting into production, so this gets a lot of focus and attention. But if the technology is robust and the market is there, then FID occurs. Market forces and up-scaling, are challenges all future HPA producers face. Securing off-takes will be significantly easier with Alcoa leading the venture.
- The Company will continue to communicate information, as necessary. Most likely, this will be criticized as being confusing or inadequate in some respect, by HC posters.
There is nothing like a SP correction to focus investors attention on the risks. With Alcoa on board the risks are less, and hence the potential returns may be too.
^^It is accepted that the Project is not as de-risked as the market was anticipating. Notwithstanding, the SP reaction is way over done IMO. Valuations are always subjective, but typically most of the time a SP is either over-valued or under-valued (the voting machine). Based on the current risk profile, we are significantly under-valued IMO. As I have said in the past, risk vs reward. Risks are skewed to the upside now IMO.
Investors need to decide if the current Execution schedule aligns with their investment time horizon - for me it does. I'm also happy with the risk / reward profile. If the SP is $2+ in 1Q 2025 I will be a very happy camper indeed! The SP could easily be up 100% a lot sooner than that. I know many people will doubt this, because people equate the current state, to the likely future state (cognitive bias). Well, when crude oil traded at negative dollars on the exchange (which no one thought would ever happen), no one thought it would be US$120 a barrel two years later. The market is full of surprises, both positive and negative.
GLTAH!
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