"
2-3Q's of engineering, then we build. Doesn't seem an unreasonable wait if you see the HPA market being in deficit as expected, when expected." -
Agree. Maybe there is some float built into the December 2022 FID too. Roly indicated that getting money out of the Alcoa Board is no mean feat, so clearly there is a process that takes some time, and hopefully provision has now been made for that.
The
FEL and
Stage terminology has created confusion, and Roly has acknowledged that. FEL's are internal gateways to Project development. Obviously they are very important from a Management perspective, but unfortunately it just caused confusion.
N.B. There is no credibility to the claim that these were used as a deliberate attempt to deceive investors.
Obviously the market (including myself) was hoping for a FID announcement, well NOW! I have given plenty of thought to this over the last few days, and had numerous correspondence with Roly on this topic. My take, is that this is a
Golden Rule scenario i.e. the person with the Gold makes the Rules. Alcoa simply didn't need to commit to FID now, and they have nothing to gain by doing so. THE FID date could have been communicated better, but I suspect that there would still have been a knee jerk reaction irrespective of how it was communicated. I have
NO DOUBT Alcoa are commitment to this venture. They have allocated budget; they are progressing the work (lots of it according to Roly - watch the presentation), and they are largely funding this work too. Sure there isn't a FID - but at the current SP, you unequivocally are not paying for such certainty.
"
Alcoa have funded Stage One and will fund mostly Stage Two".
"
Nothing has changed other than we are progressing with the plan - as planned"
"The project development is slow and steady, granted - but at least we will know that it will work - and as a result Alcoa will invest.""
The staged scheduled development is there for a a very good tried and proven reason - increased probability of delivery. Rushing this development is not the aim of the strategy. Getting the development right is."
Looks to be good support at these levels.
@rizzla - agree looks like instructional buying to me. I know for a fact that Citicorp accumulated over 13 million shares between 8th October 2021 and 25th March 2022. HSBC accumulated almost 5 million over the same time period.
GLTAH!
