I don't have any evidence, i just try and make a decision on chance. In this situation the chance is probably quite low they will need to but i cannot say with 100% certainty they will and you cannot say with 100% certainty they won't, its a game of probabilities. On your data you may come to a decision that its perhaps a 90% chance no raise and a 10% chance of a raise (as an example). Things can arise that shifts these things we don't expect or things can stay on course. Then of course what would it look like in the event they did raise based on my current holdings, their $ value and average price.
The slight possibility of a raise was just one of the last and smaller factors in my decision as an investor to move my money, it in no way changes that I feel this is building into a great company, again its just how long was i willing to hang around, and ive spoken in depth to Gerard about this and have had private meetings within the last few months with Garry Pennefather the COO and Eleonora the Sales Manager, they are very high quality individuals and are certainly people i would have work for me.
When you are dealing with large private, public or government organisations things generally move slowly through alot of red tape, especially if you want to order high value products, it will then need to be put to a board, thats whats likely happening here the irons are in the fire and i am confident they will land some.
I dont agree with the companies policy on newsflow and believe it's detrimental to the share price and a poor decision, but again it's one of the many variables i consider.and there is im sure a valid counter argument, I see all the pics on social media but nothing stating in a press release that we just sold 5 cameras to ABC Building in Perth and expect the recurring revenue from these cameras use of our cloud services bring in another $XXX this FY.
They could need extra money for an acquisition, land a whale contract and need to produce more stock and the new sales offices could be so successful they need to hire more staff, again i'm not saying any of that will happen, it's just part of my thought process.
I ran a very successful gambling business for many years assessing odds of horses and betting the value runners, my gut played a massive role in my success. I got a bit big for my boots and developed a significant predictive database with 1000s of variables to hire several form analysts to gave a state each plus HK, in the end the data model failed. The variables alone were very accurate and must be respected, but it didn't account for my gut feeling if a horse was going to improve 5 lengths, was unable to back up, carry the weight etc etc.
I love data, i get it and agree it needs to be applied, but my personal interpretation and gut feeling has been the one that used in conjunction i have had success in life. Make no mistake if i seen this turning around from a SP angle in a few months i would be buying more, and it may turn around and thats a decision i live with.
Despite being now an ex holder from IPO, involved in raise etc i still think this will be a great company and will protect it here and promote its bright prospects and hopefully buy back once the worm turns, , just because you move doesn't mean your opinion on a business is negative, it just may not fit your current plan of attack.
So
@kickit2me i'm not sure after that ramble if i have answered you haha, but for all i know they could land a multi million dollar contract tomorrow, or it will be slow going for a few years, i don't know mate, again its back to the chance/probability equation. I believe you to be a fair, well balanced and researched investor who can state his case based on the data and facts you collect and i wish you and all holders the best for success here in the short term, i am a big boy and have made my decision and will live with it.
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