I hoped that some savvy individualwould give me a starting point...

I hoped that some savvy individualwould give me a starting point to my what-revenue-for-2025 question.That is a shallow question that implies, other things being the sameas FY2024. If that were true, I would instinctively pluck 10% revenueincrease out of thin air. Now that Management has learned to focus onprofit margin, it could let the revenue plateau, and increase theNPAT/Revenue ratio.

Words like, “Focus is on opportunitiescontributing to FY26 and beyond” suggests to me that NWH may notincrease revenue in 2025 by much, but there is room to increaseNPAT/Revenue ratio. The H1FY24 NPATN was $58 million, and Revenue$1,430 million current, which is 4.06% margin. If WAK were to increaseRevenue by 10% at 4.06%, that would give an NPATN of $1,430*110%*4.06% = $63.8638 million. In contrast, if revenue were toremain static, and the NPATN margin were 4.5%, the revenue would be$1,430*4.5% = $64.35. I do not think customers would change theirbuying behaviour if each $104.06 of cost changed to $104.50 ofcost.

Lycopodium's H1FY24 Revenue was $177.8, and its NPAT $30million, which is 16.85%. This high percentage could relate to H1FY24having provisions for things going awry reversed on contractcompletion, because astute management ensures that things do not goawry. LYL's H1FY24 report states, “With a strong pipeline ofstudies and projects in delivery, the Company remains on track toachieve the previously advised full year guidance of approximately$345 million in revenue and NPAT in the range of $46 to $50 million." Taking the lower NPAT of $46M, that is 46/345 = 13.33% NPAT margin. For NWH tomake an NPAT margin of 4.5% should be a doddle.

In summary, Imoot that NWH should have a FY25 NPAT of about $64 million. Ideliberately used the word “moot” to suggest the figure is opento debate. Much of the improved margin should come from MET, which isa poor performer, in spite of it being a style of business à laLycopodium.

The figures below are the EBIT margins provided inthe EUROZ Hartleys presentation – EBIT margin is a different beast to NPATmargin.

CIVIL – H1FY24 –––– $297.3M Revenue, 4.1%EBIT margin.
MINING – H1FY24 –– $772.2M Revenue, 9.0% EBITmargin
MET – H1FY24 ––––– $392.6 M Revenue, 5.5% EBITmargin