I had this at $10, roughly. You have to discount somewhat for liquidity and key man risk.
But other than that, it looks like a very bullish setup:
- Advisor numbers are likely at a trough (FY25 very likely the bottom, according to recent $WTL presentation)
- Demand for advisory services remains big, so margins expanding (financial planning used to be breakeven or small loss leading biz for FID, not anymore)
- Cost to income is at a historically high level. They can probably drop this back to 55% now that PCCU acquisition is firmly bedded down
- Auxillium only has $100m of external funds under administration. No guarantee here, but 30bps on an additional $1bn of FUM would be substantial ($3m at very high margin)
Example from previously posted research:
- July FUM and FUAdm figures were 11% and 10% above FY24 averages. At 48% margins for FUM and 64% margins for FUAdm, that's significant.
- Staff numbers actually fell as some FUA left post PCCU integration. Employee costs went up less than 1% as a result, whilst revenue was up 10% or so. This should continue in the short-medium term as CTI normalizes (see above)
- Even with dividend policy now based on UNPATA, cash still building. Acquisitions can be made, which they've historically done rather successully.
Mid-teens EPS growth is my base case.
(20min delay)