Since May, the provisional tax rate for coal imports will be zero, and the policy of ensuring supply and stable prices will continue to exert force. On April 28, the Ministry of Finance announced that in order to strengthen the guarantee of energy supply and promote high-quality development, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council recently issued an announcement that from May 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023, all coal will be subject to tax rates. A provisional import tax rate of zero.
Affected by this, as of the close of April 28, the overall increase in the coal mining and processing sector was 2.77%, China Coal Energy's daily limit, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Shenhua, and Lu'an Environmental Energy rose 9.32%, 7.73%, and 7.02% respectively.
Due to the serious inversion of imported coal prices recently, zero tariffs on coal imports are mainly aimed at reducing the cost of coal imports.
Zhongyu Information analyst Su Jia told the "Securities Daily" reporter that since 2022, the policy of increasing coal production and supply has continued to intensify. Among them, in March, the production of raw coal was 396 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, and the average daily output was 12.77 million tons, a new high in recent years. With the increase in downstream daily consumption and the increase in coal demand, the coal market may usher in a boom in both supply and demand.
Imported coal prices are upside down
The introduction of zero tariffs on coal imports is related to the surge in international coal prices.
Since March, under the influence of geopolitical and other factors, the gap of coal in the international market has increased, the international coal price has been soaring, and the domestic and foreign coal prices have been seriously inverted.
According to the latest monitoring data from China Coal Market Network, in the international market, as of April 22, the thermal coal price index of Newcastle Port in Australia was 370 US dollars/ton, the Richards Port thermal coal price index in South Africa was 325.5 US dollars/ton, and the European thermal coal price index was 325.5 US dollars/ton. The three-port thermal coal price index was US$348.3 per ton, up 9.9%, 4%, and 11.9% from the end of April 15, respectively.
In contrast to the domestic market, according to data from Qinhuangdao Coal Network, from April 20, 2022 to April 26, 2022, the Bohai Rim thermal coal price index closed at 735 yuan/ton, far lower than the international market coal price.
Yang Jie, a researcher at the Easy Coal Research Institute, also told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "Due to geopolitics, imported coal resources are relatively tight, and the price gap between domestic and foreign coal has expanded significantly, making it relatively difficult to increase domestic coal imports."
The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that in March 2022, China imported 4.328 million tons of thermal coal (including bituminous coal and sub-bituminous coal, but excluding lignite, the same below), a year-on-year decrease of 60.3%. China imported 7.606 million tons of lignite, a year-on-year decrease of 25.93%.
Industry insiders believe that if the international coal price continues to run at a high level and the price of imported coal is seriously inverted, domestic end users will not be very motivated to purchase imported coal.
Guotai Junan’s research report mentioned that from the perspective of imports, Indonesian coal had no import tariffs before, and the low customs clearance of Mongolian coal was not due to tariffs, but due to the prevention and control of the epidemic. Judging from the 3% tariff reduction, the impact on coal import prices is in the range of 30 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, which has a very limited impact on the current price adjustment of seaborne coal and is not enough to reopen the import window of Canadian coal and American coal. .
The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continues to exert force
On the one hand, under the background of "grabbing coal", my country's coal imports are decreasing, and on the other hand, the peak of coal consumption is imminent. Increasing coal supply and stabilizing coal prices are still the top priority of stabilizing the coal market.
On April 25, the "National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Forecast Report for the First Quarter of 2022" released by the China Electricity Council pointed out that due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts, the international supply of coal, oil and natural gas is tight, which has increased the difficulty of domestically importing coal and natural gas. , the domestic downstream coal inventory is still at a relatively low level, the price of thermal coal fluctuates at a high level, and there are potential risks in the supply of coal power and gas power during the peak summer season.
On April 28, the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association issued a proposal, stating that the current international energy situation is complicated, and the domestic and foreign environment has undergone unexpected changes. To meet the work requirements of supply, further promote the release of high-quality production capacity and orderly production, earnestly implement the requirements for signing and performance of medium and long-term coal contracts, and ensure that coal prices operate within a reasonable range.
With the continuous efforts of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the problem of tight coal supply has been alleviated to some extent.
"At present, affected by the previous supply guarantee policy and the decline in demand, the coal inventory of domestic power plants will recover to the level of the same period in 2020 in the short term. Nervous." An analyst in the energy industry of a securities firm told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the subsequent resumption of work and production will coincide with the arrival of the peak season for residential electricity consumption. If the inventory cannot be replenished in time to maintain a high level, then the coal price may still rise.
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