Ann: Investor Presentation Half Year 2020, page-5

There were some new numbers in there.

"760k online investors, 30k+ change brokers annually, 30k+ new investors join the market."
"SelfWealth are projected to acquire 15,000+ new active traders in calendar year 2020. Representing 25% of new and switching investors."
"SelfWealth has doubled its market share to an estimated 4%."

That matches what I was expecting, but it changes my estimate of market share down to 3.1% for Jan (they say ~4%). Previously I think they had released a lower 'total online investors number', so maybe the market size grew.

30k and 30k changing brokers or joining the market - 3735 new active traders for SWF last quarter suggests 24.9% of them were gained by SWF, as they said, suggesting a trend towards 24.9% market share. Considering the current 3-4% market share, it should not slow down soon.

3735 last quarter suggests 15,000 new active traders added in a year, as they say, which would add about 70% to their total (so revenue would rise roughly similarly). If the stronger January performance kept up, then 15,000+ would come into play. 25% of new and changing clients joining SWF is already a high proportion, so I wouldn't expect drastically more growth above the 3735 active clients added number last quarter.


HY YoY (Dec 19 vs Dec 18)
Revenue: +104%
Gross Profit: +195%
(Minus semi-fixed expenses)
Net Loss: -35%

Gross profit growing faster than revenue is probably a good trend suggesting of the economies of scale. Though there is still a large amount of semi-fixed expenses to overcome.


"Strong growth trend continues in February 2020."
As I'm expecting for various reasons. Eg. February is usually seasonally up 19% vs January.


Revenue proportions:


Trading revenue increased a lot faster than subscription/interest. Interest being dampened because of RBA cuts. Subscription, I don't know. Then ETF made 0.0001% of the HY revenue (though only existed for a portion of the half).

I expect subscription/interest make closer to 100% gross margin, while I've assumed trading revenue makes 40%. So it would be nicer to make more of the valuable subscription/interest revenue. At least now, I'm thinking RBA is getting closer to their lower limit.


Then there were a few new charts in the presentation. Plus the January 2019 vs January 2018 performance figures lets me infer the January 2018 numbers.


Overall: no problem. Looking set for strong growth, as it was in January.

The banks should be taking notice, with currently 3-4% market share, and gaining 25% of new and changing users, so trending towards 25% market share (already making them lose market share). It might be on their radar as a threat rather than an acquisition target, since would they actually want to own a low-cost broker?