All fair points,
@LuckyBloke
What I mean to say is that the Company has been caught in a perfect storm of negative media coverage, for several months now, in relation to a high number of moving pieces; furthermore, the potential negative impact from some of them (the grandfathered commission issue, for instance, until today) has not been easy to quantify accurately.
If you look at some of my previous posts on IFL, for instance here:
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/33620002/single
and here:
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/33648682/single
I had already estimated that, at current price, the market is already fully pricing in a breakup of the vertical integration model
and an introduction of the 3% fee caps.
Now we also have confirmation from Management that the abolition of grandfathered commissions is not going to have a material impact, as I had already tried to very roughly guesstimate here:
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/33083953/single
And, finally, the potential impact of aligning platform fees to the most recent competitor pricing had been outlined (and put into historical context) here:
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/34522422/single
Then there is all the ongoing noise from the RC, as well as from the renewed threat of a class action (as unlikely as it seems, more than four years after the end of the relevant events), which as you rightly pointed out are also hard to quantify.
I certainly do agree that there is likely to be value at these levels. On a very broad spectrum of possible outcomes, that is. Hope all of the above helps your analysis of the business.
Cheers
(20min delay)