While there is scant detail about the drivers of his forecasts (all the detailed financials on the second page are merely for prior periods), it appears as if the analyst has either:
a) still not updated his/her financial model for the purchase of the ANZ Wealth business,
or
b) if he/she has indeed incorporated the ANZ Wealth business, then - given that those acquired earnings will be around $90m (depending on the degree of synergies harvested) - the analyst's $229m UNPAT forecast for FY2020 implies that the company's $191m FY2018 NPAT will have contracted by more than $50m (nearly 30%).
If IFL's core business sheds 30% of its current level of profitability over the next two years, then either I am analytically inept and should sub-contract my investing activities to a third party, or the financial world will be in such dire straits that IFL reporting NPAT of $229m is likely to be the least of our worries.
IFL Price at posting:
$8.97 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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