I have to agree with you points here - not great with Dargues picking through low uneconomic grade (+ having reconciliation issues) and Peak guidance disappointing (w/ Kairos making up only a fraction of the feed). Still - forrest from the trees, i grabbed a few today. Few observations:
1. Guidance uses base metal prices that are around ~15% below spot. If spot holds that should reduced AISC by ~A$300/oz
2. Like the above, the Peak production target published last week uses prices well below spot, if you adjust to spot the NSR is ~A$300/t and LOM margins very healthy. Kairos will get blended in over time rather than high graded early, but still it will get mined.
3. Federation is the main game here and I think the FS will surprise to the upside. 10km south of Hera - so will be both capital-lite and 'easy' to permit. As it stands resource is 5.1mt @ 8.4g/t AuEq for 1.4Moz AuEq. This deposit on its own could justify the current ~A$450m EV.
(20min delay)