Well summarised, hightrax and bigchops — thank you. The...

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coalforme

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01/05/24

14:57

Post #: 73610564
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Originally posted by hightrax: ↑

What fund manager would have been in BCB before now? Bit too risky I suspect. Could be true though.

Some basic facts are correlated with movement. Despite huge deferred royalty payment settled, port outage and rail outage due to cyclone, three shiploads of washed coal waiting for trains at the wash plant, due to the above and more rain, a quarter profit has been earned, of $11 million. Without the deferred royalty hit, it would have been well over $20 million. Not sure of company tax liability just yet, but expect that there are a fair amount of prior losses available to offset tax.
This quarter the positives occurring to this amateur are:
1. Wet season mostly passed.
2. Overburden ratio on EF only 5:1, for remaining pit life reducing costs sharply.
3. Higher grade in all vectors in EF.
4. Three shiploads of coal mined in MarQ awaiting sale. This will be a big boost to Jun Q income presumably. Chance to knock off some of that debt.

The negatives:
1. The working capital tied up in 3. above.
2. All the mines will be looking for trains to arrive ASAP, for the same reason.
Adani have bought their own locos and wagons now to get around this logjam problem. BCB might be a bit too young and small to think about this one yet.
3. The main rail operator (from memory) is not investing in new rolling stock as they see coal as a sunset industry,at the same time as coal production and exports are expanding. Poor judgement, I believe.
4. Too long to the next state election and no commitment I know from the coalition to reduce the hypo royalty. (?)
5.The effect of a global recession on coking coal prices? So far not too bad.

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Well summarised, hightrax and bigchops — thank you. The positives clearly outweigh the negatives, in my view, provided that coal prices hold at current levels or thereabouts. Others will take a different view, no doubt, and that’s the stuff of a good debate.

BCB Price at posting: 5.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 4.8¢		Change -0.002(4.00%)		Mkt cap ! $136.7M

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