Well the US debt buying business will certainly be the growth...

Well the US debt buying business will certainly be the growth engine over the next 5 years given the relative size of that market and hence the opportunity for the business to get a foothold there, but what is keeping CCP afloat (and mgmt should get credit here when they saw a challenging PDL market in both ANZ & US) is the ANZ Lending business.

Their gross loan book value increased by ~42% in FY2023 and then a further ~15% in the 6 months since Jul23 (or ~20% to Apr24).

The relative contribution of that business has grown from 21% in FY22 to 38% in FY23 and 41% in 1H24 (excluding the US PDL provision). I'd imagine that this part of the business which is currently having to make up the shortfall in the PDL contribution (because of market factors), will eventually taper off and maybe start to fall given the credit challenges this may result in (especially if the economy comes off the boil and unemployment starts to rise in ANZ)