FFM 3.61% 80.0¢ firefly metals ltd

The simplest way and the valuations come out so close is like...

  1. 2,614 Posts.
    The simplest way and the valuations come out so close is like this

    Oil price: $70net Gas Price $3.75net
    well tax+Ryls
    Well name boepd boeyr rev pa well Rev -40% AUT's Y
    Morgan 1000 12000 $840000 0 $504000 $110,080
    Rancho
    etc
    etc
    etc
    20th well
    Total $23,700,000

    PE 10, 10 * $23,700,000 = mcap $237,000,000
    But that gives no value to future wells,

    I like to then add in 10% of next few years wells , 30 wells, predominantly on Longhorn with $4m income per well to AUT * 10% value = 30*400K = 12M

    2012 50 wells = 50* 300K = 15M
    2013 15M
    2014 15M

    Whats clear now though is the market is re-rating AUT and applying a lot less risk to the future wells. I find this a lot easier then using RR. And just as acurate in this case, as it has 100% reinvestment.
 
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