Tevolo you are right in isolation but missing the main objective here.
Lynas will produce HRE, either in Texas or at LAMP, and 99% of the Tb/Dy will be sold to Japanese magnet makers regardless of location, basically the US has no ability to use them.
The main objective of processing HRE in Texas is as the tip of the spear, to be followed by NdPr as per the lead, albeit second, tender let by AFL.
The third tender is seeking metal/alloy processing capability.
The fourth NdFeB production capability.
The fifth SmCo production capability.
Total magnet supply chain with the notable exception of mining.
For way too the RE industry has always been talked about bottom up when the critical aspect is top down, ROW demand. This is clearly demonstrated by the fact Lynas is producing far more REO than ROW can absorb, and its planned expansion will go way beyond what Japanese growth can absorb on its own.
Lynas needs to expand ROW mkts, and the largest manufacturing economy outside China is the obvious place to do it, but equally obviously Lynas cannot do all the heavy lifting on its own.
The USG has to provide both some relatively minor capital incentive thru the multiple stage supply chain but FAR more importantly it needs to supply the policy settings to negate Chinese State subsidy of their NdFeB exports.
Without that policy support at the top end to create domestic demand on a level playing field NONE of the supply chain components can be LT sustainable.
This is a LT gameplan by the Chinese, leveraging Deng's "ME has oil.........", Lynas cannot negate it, Lynas & Japan can barely hold it at bay, only the US has the manufacturing base with the potential scale to challenge it, and that is totally dependant on the USG having the will, and smarts, to put the right policy settings in place to create the top down demand.
LYC Price at posting:
$2.09 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)