Keen to get some further thoughts from people on what the...

Keen to get some further thoughts from people on what the updated economics are likely to look like.

the latest NPV figure of A$549m was prepared way back in 2019, but from what I can tell still assumed a recovery in basket price to US$40 (A$56) per REO KG.

I think this is slightly conservative and I expect the revised economics will assume at least an A$10 improvement in operating margin (is this reasonable?)

if this is the case, that’s an extra A$85m to the bottom line (say $55m after tax) leading to a total post tax NPV increase of at least $350m (quick back of envelope calcs).

they have also claimed a $77m reduction in capex spend vs the $593m used in the 2019 NPV calc, although I suspect there will be pressures on that number and we shouldn’t assume much from that

the mine life extension is also quite significant, but given that’s adding on revenues behind the previously assumed 13 years it’s pretty far out and heavily discounted in the NPV… maybe an extra $100m from that?

all up i am hoping for something closer to A$800m-A$900M that the old A$549M

Please note this is just me doing mental calcs while typing on an iPhone… Not investment advice in any way!

would really value thoughts and feedback on what I’ve got completely wrong or may have missed