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06/10/15
09:54
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Originally posted by Wieman01
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After reading the investors presentation from october the 5th for the " London-tour" I noticed a difference compared with the investors presentation for july the 28th in Sydney:
The presentation in july was speaking of an AISC of $ 960 - 1060 for the FY 15/16 (incl. the service Shaft). The new presentation is speaking of an AISC of $ 900 - 1000,- (also incl the Service Shaft). I also noticed that the budgeted costs for Capital Expenditures (incl the Shaft) and Exploration decreased from a total of $ 31 mln (10 + 10 + 11) to $ 29 mln. (10 + 15 + 4).
It seems they have been running through the numbers again and changed it slightly. The development costs where not mentioned in the october presentation though.
The conclusion is that the AISC decreased to a mid-number of $ 950,- compared to $ 1010,-. When you extract the costs of the Service shaft of $ 80,- per OZ you see a new AISC of around $ 870,-. If they are also able to lift production towards a level of 150.000 OZ per annum (an increase of 25.000 OZ or 20% compared to the mid-number of 125.000 OZ for the FY 15/16) then AISC can drop to a level of 870 x (125.000/150.000) = $ 725,- !!!. Perhaps management can confirm this kind of calculations because this has the potential of a game changer.
If my calculations are correct then I begin to believe that Medusa will start a new period in the next 12 months. A stock price of 43 cents no longer suits MML.
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AISC is steadily improving as the management sated.
Good sign (although still long way) to recover, but the recent sharp falling of SP justified Medusa is a buy.