DRO

5.73%

$1.32 droneshield limited

yes , you are completely correct re projections. but that is if...

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nottawombat

6,256 Posts.

582

13/10/22

12:34

Post #: 64178573

Originally posted by SirKnight: ↑
I am not so sure wombat.

They have blown circa $65 million on their CY2022 sales pipeline as per the July Investor Presentation. Please explain DRO.

Whilst cashflow is indeed better - they are still struggling on the sales front, barely acheiving $500k per month in general non-disclosed revenue.

And expenses are rising.

I am still very positive on the future of DRO - however, management needs to seriously look at the way it sets and achieves targets and why it is failing to convert the sales pipeline to revenue.

SK.

DRO Analysis
As at: 13/10/2022
1

2 CY 2022

3 30/6/2022 Half year customer revenue $5,223,000
Including payments in advance
4
Less receipts relating to 2021 -$200,000

5 30/9/2022 3rd QTR customer revenue $3,626,000

6 30/9/2022 3rd QTR Grants & Incentives (non-customer) $2,016,000

7 1/9/2022 Record European Order $500,000
Assume 75% received 3rd QTR
8 4/10/2022 US Department of Defence $1,800,000
Expected receipt prior to 31 December 2022
9

$12,965,000
10
Adjustments

11 31/12/2022 Australian Department of Defence $300,000
$3.8M contract to be completed mid-2023
12
Assuming $1.8 still payable between Jan 2022 & Jun 2023

13 31/10/2022 Defence Innovation Hub $133,500
$800k spread over 12 months
14
Take-up approximate allocation to 3rd QTR 2022

15 31/12/2022 Take-up non-disclosed revenue at $500k per month $1,500,000
3 month general revenue
16
Total adjustments
$1,933,500
17

18
Total revenue forecast 2022
$14,898,500
19
Change since last forecast
-1.92% Slight revenue decrease
20

21 CY 2021

22
Full year sales and other revenue
$10,812,000
23

24
Rev growth 2022

37.80%
25

26

27 Expenses CY 2022 expenses (1/1/2022-30/9/2022) $13,055,787 $17,407,716 Expenses 1/1/2022-30/9/2022 (/3*4)
28
Subtract increase in inventory levels @ 50%
-$500,000
$1,000,000 increase in inventory at sales value
29

$16,907,716
30
Change since last forecast
12.02% Expenses increasing
31

32
Forecast 2022 profit (loss)
$ (2,009,216)
33

34 Break Even? Revenue / Expenses
85.59% Probably no break even CY2022
35

36 Comparison 2021 Loss
$ (5,310,447)
37

62.16% Improvement
38

39 Investor 13/10/2022

40 Presentation $50 million sale pipeline for remainder CY2022

41
$180 million for CY2023

42
I am only forescasting $1.5 million of this to be realised

43

44
However:

45

46
From July investor presentation -

47
$125 million in sales pipeline for FY2022

48
& $230 million for FY2023

49

50
What happened to circa $65 million CY2022??????

51
What happened to circa $50 million CY2023??????

Expand
yes , you are completely correct re projections. but that is if you placed a reliance on the consistent sales pipeline that never eventuates.

Presentation just appeared more slick, a comparison to competitors ( fwiw) , just a bit more meat to the bone.

Dare I say some investors liked it judging by this morning sp .... but Im not spending a cent more on shares. I would have sold this month but for the latest and greatest order just announced. So im just hanging in there ....... for now ....

DRO Price at posting: 18.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held

Upvote

0 Great analysis

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yes , you are completely correct re projections. but that is if...

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	DRO Analysis		As at:	13/10/2022
1
2	CY 2022
3	30/6/2022	Half year customer revenue	$5,223,000		Including payments in advance
4		Less receipts relating to 2021	-$200,000
5	30/9/2022	3rd QTR customer revenue	$3,626,000
6	30/9/2022	3rd QTR Grants & Incentives (non-customer)	$2,016,000
7	1/9/2022	Record European Order	$500,000		Assume 75% received 3rd QTR
8	4/10/2022	US Department of Defence	$1,800,000		Expected receipt prior to 31 December 2022
9				$12,965,000
10		Adjustments
11	31/12/2022	Australian Department of Defence	$300,000		$3.8M contract to be completed mid-2023
12		Assuming $1.8 still payable between Jan 2022 & Jun 2023
13	31/10/2022	Defence Innovation Hub	$133,500		$800k spread over 12 months
14		Take-up approximate allocation to 3rd QTR 2022
15	31/12/2022	Take-up non-disclosed revenue at $500k per month	$1,500,000		3 month general revenue
16		Total adjustments		$1,933,500
17
18		Total revenue forecast 2022		$14,898,500
19		Change since last forecast		-1.92%	Slight revenue decrease
20
21	CY 2021
22		Full year sales and other revenue		$10,812,000
23
24	Rev growth 2022			37.80%
25
26
27	Expenses	CY 2022 expenses (1/1/2022-30/9/2022)	$13,055,787	$17,407,716	Expenses 1/1/2022-30/9/2022 (/3*4)
28		Subtract increase in inventory levels @ 50%		-$500,000	$1,000,000 increase in inventory at sales value
29				$16,907,716
30		Change since last forecast		12.02%	Expenses increasing
31
32		Forecast 2022 profit (loss)		$ (2,009,216)
33
34	Break Even?	Revenue / Expenses		85.59%	Probably no break even CY2022
35
36	Comparison	2021 Loss		$ (5,310,447)
37				62.16%	Improvement
38
39	Investor	13/10/2022
40	Presentation	$50 million sale pipeline for remainder CY2022
41		$180 million for CY2023
42		I am only forescasting $1.5 million of this to be realised
43
44		However:
45
46		From July investor presentation -
47		$125 million in sales pipeline for FY2022
48		& $230 million for FY2023
49
50		What happened to circa $65 million CY2022??????
51		What happened to circa $50 million CY2023??????

yes , you are completely correct re projections. but that is if...

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