When stage two is fully up and running this is what ONE year might look like for the LEO share
Production 332,400
Spod price US$2000
EBITDA AUD $720M
NPAT AUD$500M
Spod price US$3000
EBITDA AUD $1.15B
NPAT AUD $800M
Considering the Spod price is currently US$5000 the numbers will look amazing if all goes to plan.
FFX current MC $1.3B
If the Gold is worth say only $500M and they have at least $100M+ in net cash that would value Leo currently at $800M.
If the Spod price is at US$3000 that's the same as one years net cash generation for LEO at full production.
That would mean the cash on LEO's balance sheet after just two years would be more than its market value if the value of LEO stays where it is.
So obviously once the split happens and production starts the LEO share price could increase at least 10X if the Spod price stays even around US$2000
On top of this if the gold ramps up as planned FFX will also be worth a lot more too plus they will still have 20% of LEO.
The stock should be at least $2.00 right now so to me it still looks very undervalued.
FFX Price at posting:
$1.10 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held