I was excited 3 years ago about Dropsuite passing its profitability inflection point and growing profits and cashflows at an exponential rate. Fortunately, I got in early enough to buy at 11c, and have also traded it quite well (uncharacteristically of me) along the way. Then they decided to raise ~20% of their market cap in cash, and they were very transparent about investing in the business to accelerate growth. Since then, as madamswer points out, they have barely maintained cashflow breakeven before considering interest on cash in the bank (exactly what they said they would do), but revenue growth has slowed dramatically, and Microsoft has entered the market.
The valuation I did back then looked great, but now, it is getting very difficult to see how they will scale up profits quickly enough to justify their market cap, add in the risk of increased churn due to Microsoft and that is why I sold (again) at 30c at the beginning of the year. For me this is a solid example of thesis creep, that great exponential profit growth you often see after software companies hit profitability just isn't the reality here. They don't have any competitive advantage, they just had a nice little niche with happy customers and IMHO should've made hay while the sun shined and grew profits as much as possible on the fixed cost base they had, kept the share count low, and they could be trading on a reasonable PE by now.
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1 | 500 | 3.300 |
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3.440 | 999 | 1 |
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