A huge amount depends on the demand growth rate. I'm of the view...

A huge amount depends on the demand growth rate. I'm of the view its growing 200-300ktpa of LCE. The likes of Goldman are also of that view and if you hold that view you struggle to get positions much beyond 2025 before supply gets tight again. There was one bizarre forecast a big bank did only a short time ago and got an over supply on the assumption every DFS started and was at full production on its targeted completion date. They had something like 7 North American projects producing in 2027 but I only saw the bizarre snippets of the report.

There's been a lot of new hard rock capacity come on the market in the last 12-18 months and this supply is at least meeting if not exceeding demand growth in the short term. Critically demand keeps on growing but each of these projects is a fixed level of supply. New supply that's come online recently and is now most likely fully in the market includes:

• The volumes from NAL (SYA/PLL's JV). They produced 40,439t of 5.4% last quarter (21.6kt LCE annualised)
• The volumes from Sigma (51,857t of 5.4% in Q1, 270kt annual target). 27.7kt LCE annualised but target is 36ktpa LCE

• The volumes from Core last quarter was 24,927t of 4.8% (11.8kt LCE annualised)
• The volumes from Arcadia (Zimbabwe). This one's more difficult because it was sold into a Chinese firm that appears to have changed the plan to higher volumes over a shorter timeframe. The owners noted hitting nameplate in Q1 this year and its got 4.5Mt input volumes of 1.19% head grade material. If they have a 70% recovery rate they are supplying 92.7kt LCE
• Expansion on some other Zimbabwe assets, but I think Arcadia's the main source of the additional volumes out of Africa
• Mt Holland (SQM/Wesfarmers) began crushing in May 2023 and had a mine opening 7 Mar 2024. They noted an expectation to ship 100kt this financial year as they ship Spod before Hydroxide is fully commissioned. They are a 2Mt build and I think they are targeting 380kt of SC6 (56kt LCE per year). How much of this is now in the supply system is unclear but some of it is.
• Pilbara modestly expanded production with their P680 project.
• Greenbushes had been modestly expanding production (but has more recently pulled back on growing volumes)
• Some others will have increased production including the Brine space I'm not following closely

But what's still to go?
LTR is still to supply ore into the system but are talking about commencing ramp-up in June 2024 . They are about 83kt LCE (3Mt * 1.4% * 80% target recovery * 2.473). Gaulamina timeline is similar and they are also still to supply ore into the system but are commissioning a 2.3Mtpa throughput plant aiming at 436ktpa of SC6 (65kt LCE). I'm not sure who the next one is after these two, its that far away.

• If the system is growing at 200ktpa then KV/Goulamina are 9 months supply growth
• If the system is growing at 300ktpa then KV/Goulamina are 6 months supply growth

The next 6-12 months could be interesting but to get oversupply until 2028 needs to include a whole heap of projects starting that haven't.