Only negative with IOH is that they have taken their time to begin to unlock their excellent resources, whilst companies like BCI made big decisions (and at the time were criticised) to do earlier deals and get the jump on others.
IOH are now exposed to a much more volatile commodity pricing or at least the perception that iron ore prices could drop to $90 p/t very quickly because we saw that happen very recently.
That perception of risk is what has IOH priced at $1.10 and hopefully iron ore prices can hold at least above the $110 p/t mark over the medium-long term because both projects appear very robust above that price point and once the ore starts coming out of the ground there will be no denying the cash flow, the earnings & the profit. The numbers will be startling if the jigsaw fits together.
All risk will be removed but not until that point in time (i.e. sales of iron ore) so we really are still looking at a fairly long haul to unlock that potential share price of BCI and then multiply BCI x 2 if the Buckland Project gets ramped up to 8mtpa but there is still plenty of water needed to run under the bridge.
I'm resigned to holding probably until 2015/2016 to unlock that sort of value but the only other option is to cut & run earlier - making a bit of money but possibly missing out on far greater returns if & when this whole thing happens.
IOH Price at posting:
$1.10 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
