Ann: Investor presentation, page-18

While its not good for the farmers and villages in the Phillipines it may give Red 5 some breathing space to get things on track to achieve, at the least, Q2 and Q3 guidance.



Drought, dry spell likely till December; rainfall can drop by 60% - Pagasa

By: Catherine J. Teves, Philippines News Agency
June 27, 2015 12:28 PM

Dry field in South Cotabato. PHOTO FROM SOUTHCOTABATO.GOV.PH


InterAksyon.com
The online news portal of TV5
MANILA -- After experiencing scorching heat, the Philippines is likely to face up to six straight months of drought and a maximum four consecutive months of dry spell in the second half of the year, the state weather agency Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said.
"Such forecast will most likely come true," said Pagasa senior weather specialist Anthony Lucero, noting that rainfall reduction in some areas can exceed 60 percent.
Latest data indicate the drought-driving El Nino phenomenon that's already in progress can possibly further intensify this year from "moderate" to "strong" and persist until early 2016, Lucero said.
Such intensification will likely approximate the 1997-1998 El Nino that ravaged the country, he noted.
He said El Nino's development at present is already comparable to its 1997-1998counterpart.
Experts already identified the 1997-1998 El Nino as the strongest of its kind to affect the country during the 20th century.
Affected areas
Data from Pagasa this week indicate neither drought nor dry spell will affect several provinces during the second semester of 2015.
Those provinces are Batanes in Luzon and Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Davao Oriental, Surigao del Sur, and Lanao del Sur all in Mindanao.
Citing results of its rainfall analysis, however, Pagasa said provinces facing six straight months of drought from July to December this year are the Leyte and Southern Leyte as well as South Cotabato, Sarangani, Sultan Kudarat, Basilan, Maguindanao, and Sulu.
The agency also forecast five months of drought from August to December this year in Luzon's Isabela and Camarines Norte provinces as well as the Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Cebu, and Biliran.
Four months of drought from September to December is forecast for Aurora, Batangas, Quezon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, and Romblon provinces and the Aklan, Antique, Capiz, and Iloilo, Pagasa continued.
Pagasa also expects three-month drought from October to December in Metro Manila and Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Cavite, and Laguna.
Over 60 percent reduction from average rainfall can be expected in drought-stricken areas, said Pagasa.
Conserve water
Lucero urged the public to conserve water and prepare for the dry months ahead.
"Our forecast rainfall towards the year's end doesn't look good particularly for the Visayas and Mindanao," he said.
Bolstering such forecast is below-normal rainfall already occurring in various areas of the country, he noted.
Pagasa further said provinces under threat from four consecutive months of dry spell beginning September 2015 are Marinduque, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Masbate and Sorsogon; Siquijor, Northern Samar, and Western Samar; and Bukidnon, Compostela Valley, Davao, Davao del Sur, and Cotabato.
Three straight months of dry spell from October to December 2015 will likely hit entire Cordillera Administrative Region and the provinces of Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Zambales, Rizal, Palawan, and Albay; Eastern Samar province as well as Zamboanga del Norte,Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay, and Misamis Occidental, Pagasa also said.
For 2015, Pagasa also expects the dry spell in Bohol province from July to September and in Surigao del Norte from September to November.
Between 21 percent to 60 percent reduction from average rainfall can be expected in areas under the dry spell, said Pagasa.
Dry season after rainy season
Pagasa noted drought and the dry spell already affected over 30 provinces nationwide this year.
"It's good the rainy season commenced so we expect conditions to slightly improve," said Lucero.
He said people must take advantage of the rainy season and save water as this wet period will prevail until around September only.
"We expect the country to experience a long, dry period afterwards," he said.
Earlier this week, Pagasa announced onset of the country's rainy season this year after rainfall data from its stations warranted this action.
Intermittent to continuous rains and thunderstorms associated with southwest wind flow will affect Metro Manila and other areas in the country's western portion, Pagasa also said.
Despite El Nino, Pagasa forecast an average 11 to 16 tropical cyclones (TCs) within the Philippine Area of Responsibility during the June-December 2015 period.
Of such number, Lucero said Pagasa expects one TC this month, three to five TCs in July, two to four TCs in each of August and September, two to three TCs in October, one to two TCs in November, and zero to one TC in December.
Pagasa said occurrence of El Nino doesn't reduce number of TCs expected in the country.
El Nino affects TCs' intensity and direction, however, Pagasa clarified.
"Very strong" TCs are possible later this year, noted Pagasa.
TCs during El Nino tend to recurve northwards instead of crossing the country, Pagasa added.