"How are you comparing OBJ with its unique relationships and current growth phase to the "'plenty that are in a better position"?"
The comparison is based on revenue, timeframes, growth rate, independence, clarity about company goals, transparency, etc. Not cross-promoting because I'm not holding, but e.g. GSW is promising $10m revenue in 2 years with similar costs and m/c to OBJ, and it has constant visible growth. SW1 has $12m revenue annualised, and growing - its costs are high, but m/c is only $25m or so. Just two examples off the top of my head. There are many more. Yet OBJers get excited about figures like $300k and $2.4m.
"Reading the presentation, the transition from gradual to exponential growth is not guaranteed but it very much remains in play."
Really? In the Revenue Strategy on page 9, they said that in
2014, they established a revenue strategy. Here in 2017, they are talking about cashflow positive in
2018. That's slow. BTW, did they tell us about their revenue strategy in 2014 of being cashflow positive in 2018? Why didn't they fix their performance shares accordingly? Obviously, they don't even know how they will go financially, partly because it's out of their control, and partly because they 7lacked the business skill to get better deals. They talk about $12b markets, but all the small caps talk about market size rather than the likely percentage of that market they will get. It's just standard practice when directors are promoting small caps.
"What criteria do you specifically use to conclude that "the new details confirmed that the whole thing has been totally over-rated"."
The tech and the scientists are great. No question. But I'd say every other aspect is over-rated. The market cap prices in everything that's in the presso if you take an 18 month perspective, yet people seem to think that the market cap is currently zero. Sure, it might double from current levels in 2 years. But the opportunity cost is great. The other possibility is that you'll get some newsletter or big long-term investor to promote it, then it could double sooner. Don't forget those who have been here for a long time have had their expectations lowered steadily - announcement by announcement, year by year. In the beginning, people (me included) were dreaming of large returns in a few years - super-secret deals with PNO and panicking pharma patent cliffs and fights to get hold of the tech etc. So it has been over-rated for a very long time, but you are right that it is now coming closer to the reality. However, if you told people in 2010 or 2014 that it would be cashflow positive in 2018, everyone would have howled you down. Even recently, people like hopeful2 have been howled down, yet proven right, and this ann confirms it. Imagine if they hadn't recently changed their licensing structure to include upfronts.
(Sorry, this post was rushed.)
(20min delay)