OLV's existing customers are very sticky and the churn rate remains low at ~10% which is where it has tracked consistently since withdrawing from US market as a growth focus and getting rid of a number of 'long tail' unprofitable/unattractive clients.
One needs to appreciate that OLV has been filling the gap of games (eg. Games Apps) revenues with gaming/wagering every quarter since IPO. Today my guess is that total games revenues is less than 10% which stems from Halfbrick which is #2 shareholder in OLV.
Initial deal size has increased materially and expect this trend to continue. There's no more App Games revenues losses to fill and as such it is reasonable to assume that the revenue growth/sales velocity can continue.
The March and June quarters are the seasonally strong quarters with renewals and underlying CAGR in existing customer spend remains rock solid. The Sept quarter will always be 'complemented' by the R&D tax rebate from an operating perspective.
My view is that if they somehow miss a few new contracts in March it will be a rounding error in terms of cash flow and ability to self fund from here and that they will certainly drop in June along with others (always the strongest quarter).
My 21 year old daughter could fund this burn (if required) from here on
This said I don't think she will get the opportunity as at 31 DEC 2017 cash of $761K with a further headroom available of $300K under the Chairman/CEO Loan facility.
When the market finally wakes up and realizes that there is not going to be a discounted share issue and that the drop-through/operating leverage for cash flow that is then able to be re-invested in additional revenue growth (~30-50% CAGR to 2020) OLV is worth >US$35m + = IPO issue price of 20c !
Credit to Brendan and the team - keep up the great work ! OLV will re-rate soon (in next 3 months) and you will not be able to buy it less than 10c and most likely higher.
I am sleeping very well here with my position, albeit having gone a tad early.
GLTA
DP
PS...If GSW had OLV's real demonstrable revenue what would it be valued at ? A good pairs trade there![]()
OLV's existing customers are very sticky and the churn rate...
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?