Ann: Investor Presentation, page-6

I've reviewed the report and investor presentation and have managed to find the reasons I should hold now (or re-buy a modest amount) are the same reasons why I re-bought (have made three seperate purchases of IMF) in the past.

These reasons are the growth of the case book to 4.7B from 3.88B previously which is a 24% growth on a clearly already large base. When growth in the case book of this kind occured in the past, it was followed on a 12m - 18m timeframe with increased flow through to case news, resolutions, revenue and profit.

The situation currently is very similar to the market reaction several years ago when the "bank fees" cases were lost. At that time, the market had to take out the potential NPAT that they'd factored in for the perceived likely win there, but at that time they largely ignore the underlying diversified case book.

To my mind the key reasons to hold / invest now are:
+ Increased case book size
+ "Insurance" against adverse events through transition to portfolio funding rather than balance sheet funding - I view this in pure "insurance policy" terms - for eventual losses, they've paid an "insurance premium" for the case by sharing the funding, but it ensures that "wipeouts" to the balance sheet are less likely. For won cases, they pay the insurance premium anyway, which eats into the eventual profit, but as we all know when we're buying insurance, you're buying peace of mind not gambling on always dodging the eventual hailstorm.
+ Some confidence based on "the litigation market is cylical" and the continued large disparity between cases funded and cases put to the investment committee that the company is still being disciplined with its funding decisions - this could mean that excess funds are returned to shareholders rather than being held on the balance sheet if appropriate opportunities cannot be found.

My own thoughts only, not trying to change any minds