Wasa / others
If I recall correctly, Eddison reseach put IMU through all their calculations a few years ago when at that time, the only product on the table which IMU had was Her Vaxx.
Eddison using all their mathematical formula, discounting back for risk and uncertainty etc, I think at that time they gave it about a 25% chance of suucess, they came up with a value of just over 4 cents per share, which allowed for the way in which the market discounts stocks to a present worth.
(note: that 4 cents was not at that time, in anyway telling us what it might be worth in 5 or 10 years time when by which time if successful it might be worth well over, or even, many multiples of a dollar).
OK since that time we have a bit more dilution maybe 20%, so maybe that moves it from 4 cents to 3.2 cents per share.
but then, in addition to Her Vaxx we now have about 3 more products in various stages of developement, (Arginine modulators, B Vaxx and Key Vaxx) each of which which, in their early stages must also be worth an average of 3.2 cents each. so 3.2 x 3 = 9.6 cents between the new entries.
OK B-Vaxx or maybe Arginine may not come to much, but if so I'm sure Key -Vaxx will make up for any short fall, so for the purpose of simplicity I'll keep the combined value at 9.6 cents
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Question: should we still value Her Vaxx at the same level as several years ago?
I think most likely not, reason being I think its been substantially further derisked since that time, if we said the chance of success back then was 25%, personally now its chance of success is probably over 90%, but for the purpose of this exercise lets just say its twice as likely to succede, than what it was a few years ago so at a 50% chance of being successfull then moves it from a value of 3.2 cents 6.4 cents per share and would be its minimum present discounted worth. ( if it is successful its real worth within 5 years could probably be measured in the dollars)
Add that 6.4 cents to the 9.6 cents from further above and we get 16 cents per share.
So in a nut shell in my opionion its very good buying anything below 16 cents per share.
But luckily for us we have a partner his name is Mr Market, currantly he is helpng us buy shares more cheaply than what they should be worth.
This partner is a complete manic-depressive, and currantly his estimate of the business's value is very pessimistic, as a result potentual shareholders looking at IMU today are completly free either accept or to decline his rediculously low offer, (and declining many are), but one day I'm sure Mr Market will come back (as he does) with an entirely different looking offer.
kind regards fp
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