As you can see from my first post , we got involved in the low...

As you can see from my first post , we got involved in the low 30s with a half holding.
We wanted to see confirmation that the company had reached the first cash burn inflection point, management could control COA and the company had the management bench to transition from a sub $10m start up to something bigger.
The stock ran away from us a bit to the low 50s when they passed the inflection point and coincided with a strong ARR number but within a couple of weeks we got lucky and acquired a lot of stock in the 41-42 level while retail investors were sidelined by the CFO announcement and an institutional shareholder was selling in a less disciplined fashion.
In a way I feel the stock in the low 50s is attractive again. It went above 60 on the back of the last numbers and then traded back on concerns of cash burn. So here we are at 52 cents......and not a lot going on.

If asked, I like accumulating a few here:

1.There is a fair amount of uncertainty about cash burn. I think the cash flow numbers next week should be solid, The company has indicated it will be better than March Q. I see fairly easy math to -$6.5 . I think there is some room for positive surprise. I think there is less room for negative surprise.

2. Going out on a limb, September quarter in software sales is usually not as strong as June and December but I think LVT could do ARR 45m and could be north of $50 m by December (maybe as much as $52 million) . That $50 million is an interesting level for gaining attention.

3. The company has started meeting and making themselves more available to US investors. Everyone expects the next cap raise to be another glut on the market......but what if? the company skewed the allocation and favored US investors over Aussie institutions leaving the Aussie institutions scaled back and starved of stock. Suddenly instead of lightening their positions in the run up to a capital raise and topping up in the raise, aussie institutions (yup that includes Regal) were left scrambling to rebuild their positions. I have zero insight about this but Im just thinking aloud .

4. Maybe its pattern recognition. It was right to buy when it traded back to 32. I was right to top up when it traded back to 42. Now its traded back to 52.......it seems to be off the radar screen and it isnt having a run up into the numbers like it did with the ARR.

I guess I would be tempted if I saw a couple of bar at 52 while it is out of the limelight now rather than wait for the C4. I dont think there will be an unpleasant surprise. There might be a pleasant number ...and even if it is just in line with expectations and a bit mundane....I think investors eventually start looking toward calendar year end and talking about "The Fifty Million ARR"