Pick your favorite quote/forecast from Dwhale:
#1 "hard to swallow can't see it getting away easily " - Upon seeing the announcement of the $50 million placing. The book was covered within an hour!
#2 "I don’t think Aussie instos keen" - Substantially over $50 million of institutional money disagrees with you.
#3 As recently as last week
"They need to raise full ✋ stop
so what price 25 or 30 ?
what’s your best guess or higher than the current price
I say sub 30 as a guess "
The raise was done at 35 cents.
#4 On 6th September
"LVT is massively overvalued any fund manager will want a big discount to get involved "
The placing was done at a 12.5% discount to the close and the 5 day VWAP, The smallest discount of any placing by LVT...and incidentally1 cent away from the price when DW posted "one more leg down I think"
#5 "LVT is not a SaaS business " All of LVT's revenues are SAAS with exception of some very small consulting revenues that came with the Wizdom acquisition
1 thru 4 were stated as opinions where everyone , including DW is fallible.
But #5 was stated boldly as a fact which was just plain inaccurate.
But we digress......let us turn now to appraising the implications of this raise.
What we should be interested in:
1. What was the total institutional demand for the placing? We will never know but there will be gossip on the street and from your brokers
2. Are there clues to whether the issue was substantially oversubscribed or merely covered?
3. How was the placing allocated? If it was oversubscribed we expect to see allocation favoring high quality institutions. Are their anchor shareholders starting to appear with substantial positions? How much of the placing was allocated in large lots to a few institutions (so they cannot flip the position due to liquidity)? How much went in small lots to smaller bidders?
4. Who acted for LVT in the placing?
5. Are we going to see sophisticated US Investors starting to play a role?
6. Do our/your cash flow models see this raise as taking the company to cash flow break even? How much cash gets the company to cash flow break even? Why was the raise set at $50 million?
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